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“The economic development of nanotechnology. An indicator based analysis”
The article can be downloaded from
http://cordis.europa.en/nanotechnology
Very important subjects derivated from the report and very interesting to investors:
- The document shows previsions for nanotech global markets of 1,000 billion USD at 2015 (figures one and two, pag. 10). Within a pessimistic scenario, the previsions are of 150 billion USD for the same year (Mitsubishi Institute, 2002). Moreover, in an optimistic scenario the previsions are of 2.6 trillion dollars at 2014 (Lux Research, 2004).
- Any case, from 2008 to 2015 you have to multiply the current market for a factor of 4. In seven years, it will have grown two for two times. In other words, year after year rhythm of growth is approximately, applying the well-known rule of 70: (70/3.5)=20%.
- You can get double market every three and half year. This sounds right. We suppose you agree with us. However, the most interesting figure of those you will be able to find it at page 22. You will observe two peaks at Fig. 15 on the patents of nanotech according to EPO (European Patents Office). Two peaks at year 1999 and at 2002. Perhaps we will be able to find a new peak every three years. Perhaps have we the same rhythm of growing for both, market and patents?
- The classification in families of developing nanotech that EPO has developed as very useful (page. 22):
o Nanobiotech
o Nanoelectronics
o Nanomaterials
o Nanodevices
o Nano-optics
o Nanomagnetics
- If you consider figures at page 23 (fig. 16) where you can observe the two most important periods and the relative growth between them: 1995-1999 and 1999-2003. Nano-optics and nano-biotech are the most enthusiastic families.
- If you believe in the accumulative character of scientific and technical knowledge and the accurate accumulation for growth happens every three and half years.
- In addition, if you consider fig. 8 where you can find peaks at the same years for VC investment and the EPO activity.
- Thus, we think that the better opportunities to invest in nanotech by 2008 and 2009 you will find at Nano-materials and Nano-electronics. You must consider that every 3.5 years, the market is double than precedent.
