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From the International Monetary Fund Review. March 2008-06-06
Global Energy: Increasingly unsustainable.
Really still are there good opportunities to invest in renewable energies?
Well, look very carefully to the following figures of the future drown by the International Energy Agency.
- Fossil fuels –oil, natural gas and coal- will remain dominant unless governments adjust policies, with developing countries as a group contributing about 74 percent of the overall increase in demand.
- From 2007 to 2030, in billion metric tones of oil equivalent will rise from 12 up to 18. Increased by 50 percent in the period. The share of energy sources could be seen by 2030 as follows, very similar to the share of 2007: approximately 25% coal, 30% oil, 15% gas, 10% nuclear power and the last 20% renewable sources.
- These trends do not bode well for cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and climate change. Today China and India accounting for 10 percent. Europe and US about 53 percent. But China, India and emergent economies will increase and will overtake the western countries by the 2018 approximately. Not only in emissions, also in car market too.
- But if policies to save energy and reduce emissions are implemented faster, the increases in global emissions will level off and could be pushed back. In 2030 we can see, as IEA scenario draws, renewables will be responsible of reduction in approximately 4 Gigatones of CO2, together to others important reductions due to higher efficiency in energy production and consumption by consumer.
Well, now it is time to calculate.
As you have seen in the previous paragraph, by 2030 China and India could be the responsible of 60% CO2 emissions. Well, then they will have (3/5) of the investment effort in greenhouse emissions. If the IEA stabilization scenario really comes, China and India will be responsible of (3/5) of the 4 Gigatones of CO2 reduction in 2030.
If you consider that to produce energy as 1KW•h you generate actually about 300Kg of CO2, then
(3/5)*(4•10exp(9)•1•10exp(3))=2.4exp(12)
Kg of CO2 that will correspond to China and India reduction by 2030.
Then, this reduction correspond to a change in energy traditional production by renewable source in…
{ [2.4exp(12) Kg(CO2)] / [0.300 Kg (CO2)/Kw•h] } = 8exp(12) Kw•h
If we consider, just as we showed in an of our previous post, that the efficiency in production electric power will be around 12% in solar cells by 2030, and if we consider the solar constant of 400 W per square meter, then
12%*(0,4KW)/m2=0.048KW/m2
Then the land considered in emergent economies for new installations to solar photovoltaic cells, for instance, could be…
(0.048KW/m2)*365(days/year)*8(hours/day)*(2/3)(sunny factor)=93.44 KW•h/year•m2
Thus,{ [8exp(12)KW•h] / [93.44 KW•h/year•m2]} = 85.6exp(9)square meters. = 85,699 square Kilometers.
This area
Approximately 8,560,000 Ha, about 9,000,000 football pitches. This area is like area of countries as
Austria, Azerbaijan or Jordan, as wikipedia says
(please, visit http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_outlying_territories_by_area
)
And finally, if you consider the cost installation about 150$ per square meter fully installed in solar photovoltaic (please, see our previous post "energy, solar plans and more") , then you will be able to see a market of…
85,6exp(9)*$US150 per square meter installed photovoltaic = $US 12,800 billions = $US 12.8 Giga dollars!!!
Perhaps you won’t be able to find another market so attractive and so sure by 2030. Don’t you think?
